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FM3 OPINION

RESEARCH

RESEARCH & STRATEGY

TO             Scott McBain

McBain Associates

FROM       Dave Metz and Miranda Everitt

FM3 Research

RE:          Arcata Community Survey Scope of Work

DATE        July 28, 2022

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) is pleased to submit this short scope of work to conduct a community survey to help inform a large-scale planning effort in the City of Arcata. We are proposing a methodology similar to the one we used in 2019 for our survey to inform the passage of the City’s Measure A in 2020.

Company Background

FM3 is a California-based company with 23 full-time employees located in our Oakland and Los Angeles offices. We have been conducting public policy-oriented opinion research since 1981 on issues of major economic and social concern, such as education; budgetary issues and taxation; constituent satisfaction with public services and support for policy proposals; transportation; healthcare; growth and property development; environmental protection; natural resource conservation and development; communications technology; energy development; and organizational branding.

In any given year, FM3 conducts hundreds of surveys and focus groups (as well as other types of opinion research), which we use to provide strategic insights and advice to our clients. All key FM3 staff members have advanced degrees in public policy, research methods, and/or extensive experience working in state and local government, and every FM3 project is personally led by one of our firm’s Partners.

More information can be found at the firm’s website at www.fm3research.com.

How FM3 Conducts Voter Surveys

The past few years have seen significant changes in the ways many Americans use communications technology. The dramatic rise in the use of caller I.D. and similar features has led to an unprecedented increase in individuals screening their calls. At the same time, use of the internet has exploded as an increasingly greater proportion of the population has access through their Smartphone or another web-capable device.

These changes have had a significant impact on the discipline of public opinion research. While the traditional methodology of conducting randomized telephone surveys continues to provide highly accurate data on public sentiments, the rise of call-screening behavior presents growing challenges. As a result, we recommend

12100 Wilshire Boulevard, suite 350 | Los Angeles, CA 90025 1999 Harrison st., suite 2020 Oakland, CA 94612 Phone: (310) 828-1183 Fax: (310) 453-6562 Phone: (510) 451-9521 | Fax: (510) 451-0384

FMS

RESEARCH

conducting a dual-mode voter survey using a combination of telephone calls and online interviews, drawing a randomly selected and demographically representative group of participants. (Alternately, we could conduct an online-only voter survey as a more cost-effective option.)

The process will begin with an initial kickoff meeting (likely via teleconference) between FM3 and the key members of the project team. The meeting will provide a comprehensive discussion of major issues that should be explored in the survey. FM3 will then present a first draft of the questionnaire for review and comment. After collecting feedback on the first draft, we will revise and refine the survey. We foresee proceeding through several drafts, incorporating feedback from the project team before each revision, to develop a research instrument that will obtain all desired information. Before interviewing commences, FM3 will secure approval from the appropriate representative on the final version of the questionnaire.

A dual-mode approach includes interviews conducted via telephone (landline and wireless) and online. The process begins with a list of voters obtained from voter registration records; the email addresses available on the voter file are matched to commercial databases to strengthen increase their accuracy. Then all respondents with an email address are invited to participate in the survey online. The remainder of interviews are obtained by phone, capturing responses from those less likely to have publicly available email addresses or to be likely to respond to an email request for an interview and ensuring a demographically representative sample. Calls and text messages are used to round out the interviewing, with a goal of getting roughly 50% of interviews by phone (on landline and cell) and 50% online (by email and text).

The survey instrument will gather relevant demographic information from respondents, enabling response analysis by gender, age, party registration, ethnicity and other demographic groupings. Relevant geographic data about survey respondents will be provided by the voter file, as all voters are required to provide a current residential address when they register to vote.

Within one to two days after interviewing has been completed, FM3 will deliver topline results that show the overall percentage of respondents that chose each answer, for all of the surveVs questions. Within two to three days, FM3 will then provide a comprehensive set of cross-tabulated results. The cross-tabulated results will include a table for each question or demographic variable in the survey, with a series of up to 200 columns indicating how various subgroups of the surveyed electorate responded to that question. The cross-tabulated results will make it possible to detect how responses differ among various subsets of the population. For example, it will be possible to compare men and women, residents of various age categories, responses based on party registration, ethnicity/race, homeowners and renters, voters living in different geographic areas, and many more subgroups of the voter population.

Upon conclusion of the survey project, FM3 will provide all of the documents listed below. All documents can be provided in hard copy or electronic form (or both), depending on your preference.

v/ Final survey questionnaire

• / Topline survey results (the survey questionnaire filled in with the percentages having chosen each response code)

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RESEARCH

 Full cross-tabulated results (responses to every question in the survey, broken down by dozens of demographic, geographic, and attitudinal subgroups of the population)

 PowerPoint presentation (graphs of topline results, additional key survey findings, conclusions and actionable recommendations)

 Public Summary Memo (this may take the form of a press memo, or executive memo highlighting important survey results, key findings, conclusions and relevant actionable recommendations) v” Raw data from the survey in electronic form (if requested)

FM3 will remain available to answer follow-up questions and present results to key stakeholders. We view each survey as an ongoing data resource; if the need arises, FM3 can do further analysis to follow-up questions that may be posed, and FM3 will continue to provide strategic consulting to assist in the development of public communications.

PROPOSED RESEARCH SPECIFICATIONS AND ESTIMATED COSTS

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RESEARCH

preparation; programming; email and text invitations; survey hosting; telephone interviewing; data entry and analysis; and reporting.

Figure 1: Estimated Survey Costs (Dual-Mode)

Figure 2 contains the total estimated costs to conduct the same survey, but using an onlineonly methodology.

Figure 2: Estimated Survey Costs (Online Only)

We would welcome the opportunity to work with you on this research, and if you have any questions or if there is any further information we can provide, please do not hesitate to contact us.

                                 Dave Metz                                                            Miranda Everitt

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3)       Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3)

                 1999 Harrison Street, Suite 2020                          1999 Harrison Street, Suite 2020

                          Oakland, CA 94612                                                   Oakland, CA 94612

                       (510) 451-9521 (Office)                                             (510) 451-9521 (Office)

                     [email protected]                                   [email protected]