The long-anticipated panel presentation on Sea Level Rise took place on Tuesday, March 28, 2023, starting at 6:00 p.m.  This was conducted as a joint City Council / Planning Commission Study Session. The full agenda packet (8 pages) for the meeting is here.

The video is 2 hours, 26 minutes. Click here for the video and a guide to what’s there.

The Panel

1. Aldaron Laird – Sea Level Rise and Humboldt / Arcata Bay tidal zone expert
2. Jeff Anderson – Northern Hydrology and Engineering
3. Kelsey Ducklow – California Coastal Commission – Environmental Scientist, Climate Change Analyst
4. Gwen Shaughnessy  – Climate Adaptation Specialist with NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management

Formerly “maybe” and later not scheduled to appear:

• Becky Smyth –  West Coast Director, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Office for Coastal Management
• Doug Marcy – NOAA

What is our time-frame for dealing with the effects of Sea Level Rise?

We’ll saw what these experts were willing to tell us. And we saw what the Councilmembers, Planning Commissioners, and City Staff were willing to hear.

A week earlier, at the March 16, 2023, OLLI Sea Level Rise presentation, here’s what Aldaron Laird had to say:

You know we’re only looking at one foot of sea level rise and we’ll have a have a state of disaster. So we shouldn’t be arguing about when we’re going to get 3 feet, when we’re going to 5 feet or something like that. Things are going to turn upside down on Humboldt Bay with 1, 2, and 3 feet of sea level rise.

Broad questions for the Planning Commission

• Could the California Coastal Commission prohibit or limit construction of tall buildings within the Coastal Zone (south of 8th Street) — and would it be prudent to re-draw the district boundaries to coincide with Coastal Zone boundaries?
• Will there be a discussion by the Planning Commission of the implications of this presentation? Or will it be more a matter of “Well, we can check off the box that we did that” situation.

… and specific questions for the City Council and the Planning Commission

The following questions are based on a list sent by Arcata resident Jane Woodward to the Planning Commissioners and the City Council for their thoughts and consideration, and (we hope) to be to be addressed at the March 28 Joint Study Session. Jane has been following the Sea Level Rise issues through attendance at the monthly OLLI Sea Level Rise Interest Group meetings. More recently, she attended the March 19, 2023, “Disasters of Humboldt Bay” presentation. (2 hours. To view, click here.)

1. How much of Arcata will be flooded if sea level rises as projected by 2045 — that is, just 22 years from now — or 2060, or after that? 
   Can we see precisely how that applies to the Gateway Plan districts as well as other areas of Arcata such as the low sections of the Bottoms?
2. Is the Coastal Commission likely to authorize high-density new building up to seven stories in its Coastal Zone jurisdiction?  Particularly in light of the Sea Level Rise Action Plan for California.
3. What about viewscape rights as protected by the Coastal Commission — what do we know about similar rulings in that regard?
4. Is it possible that the Coastal Commission will not allow any development in the Coastal Zone — that is, on the bay side (south) of 8th Street in Arcata?
5. What can we learn from recent rulings by the Coastal Commission regarding construction in the Coastal Zone? What are the criteria?
6. What level of ground water incursion can be expected as sea level rises, and how will that affect the Gateway area?  Does it rise at the same pace as sea level rises?  What happens when groundwater rises within already developed areas?
7. Is it reasonable to plan for buildings of any type to be built in areas that will be affected by sea level rise — for a projected life of only, say, 40 years?   Are there areas in Arcata where high-density residential buildings can be built on higher elevations that are not subject to sea level rise, such as Happy Valley? (This is the City-owned property, behind Alves, off of West End Road.)
8. How much of Arcata (if any) will be flooded if the dikes break along the 41-mile stretch of dikes that are privately maintained over the next 20-40 years?  Are there any requirements for dike maintenance?  Who is responsible for that?  What are the repercussions of such a breach, particularly in terms of rising groundwater.
9. At what point of sea level rise will the current Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) become non-functional and need to be moved? Assuming that the dikes around the ponds are raised, for how many years can they be expected to be functional?  And where are possible locations for moving it that will not be vulnerable to sea level rise until at least 2100?
10. Will South G Street have to be raised to be an above-water causeway, so that there can be vehicular access to the WWTP? 
11. The State Agency for Sea Level Rise Action Plan for California issued in February 2022 indicates that coastal jurisdictions should plan for 3.5 feet of sea level rise by 2050, and 6 feet by 2100. Given that the ground level in Humboldt Bay is sinking due to seismic activity, resulting in possible doubling of the rate of sea level rise locally, are we taking sea level rise seriously?  Or are we basically encouraging development in soon-to-become flood zones? 
12. Can Arcata be sued for failure to adequately account for the Humboldt ground level sinking? This effectively doubles of the Sea Level Rise rate — the sea is rising and the ground is sinking. Is this being taken into account?
13. Can Arcata be sued by developers or current and future residents for failure to adequately account for projected sea level rise in its overall land use planning (areas such as the Little Lake property on South G Street) and, most particularly, in the Gateway area?
14. How does the Gateway Plan fit in with the 2018 Arcata Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment?  Is this report available to the public? How can we access it?
15. How is the City planning to move its current residents from low-lying areas over the next 20-40 years?

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Contents  Times are approximate